I am a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Finance at the Department of Finance, University of Technology Sydney (UTS). I completed my PhD at the Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School (CBS) in 2024.

My primary research area is empirical financial intermediation, monetary policy, and macrofinance, with a particular focus on the syndicated corporate loan market.

Published Research

1. Corporate Loan Spreads and Economic Activity: with Anthony Saunders, Sascha Steffen, Daniel Streitz, Review of Financial Studies, [Published version] [SSRN]

   Abstract: We investigate the predictive power of loan spreads for forecasting business cycles, specifically focusing on more constrained, intermediary-reliant firms. We introduce a novel loan-market-based credit spread constructed using secondary corporate-loan-market prices over the 1999 to 2023 period. Loan spreads significantly enhance the prediction of macroeconomic outcomes, outperforming other credit-spread indicators. The paper also explores the underlying mechanisms, differentiating between borrower fundamentals and financial frictions, with evidence suggesting that supply-side frictions are a decisive factor in loan-spread forecasting ability.

   Presentations: NZFM Conference (2022), Danmark Nationalbank, AFA (2022), Central Bank of Ireland Workshop (2021), 11th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (2021), ABFER 8th Annual Conference (2021), SFS Cavalcade (2021), FIRS (2021), Frankfurt School Finance and Management: Regulating Financial Markets Conference (2019).

Working Papers

1. Disagreement in Perceptions of Monetary Policy

   Abstract: Professional forecasts of U.S. monetary policy display persistent and large cross-sectional dispersion. What drives this disagreement? I distinguish between two sources: (i) heterogeneity in macroeconomic outlooks and (ii) heterogeneity in perceived monetary policy rules. Using monthly Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) panels, I estimate forecaster- and time-specific perceived policy rules. I construct a new disagreement measure that isolates cross-sectional dispersion in perceived policy coefficients. I find disagreement is time-varying and systematic: it rises during shifts in policy frameworks. Using a counterfactual that holds macro outlooks fixed across forecasters, I show that a sizable fraction of funds rate forecast dispersion reflects disagreement about the policy rule, not just about the economy. Finally, I document that higher policy-rule disagreement amplifies asset-price sensitivity to FOMC announcements.

   Presentations: 15th FIRN Annual Conference.

2. Option Vanna and Equity Price Pressure: with Julian Terstegge and Paul Whelan

   Abstract: When volatility moves, option dealers must trade the S&P 500 to stay hedged. We measure this forced trade from observed dealer positions. Dealer Vanna, the sensitivity of dealers’ inventory delta to implied volatility, is persistently positive, so rising volatility forces the average book to sell $183 million per VIX point. Dealer Vanna predicts (i) the daily correlation between S&P 500 returns and VIX changes, (ii) the E-mini hedge flow that produces it, arriving within 15 minutes, and (iii) announcement-day returns around FOMC statements, which reverse the next day. Narrow event windows do not remove predictable intermediary trading demand.

   Presentations: 9th Yale Junior Finance Conference, Alpine Finance Summit 2026, SAFE Asset Pricing Workshop, 15th FIRN Annual Conference.

3. The (social) cost of strategic default: with Sascha Steffen and Daniel Streitz

4. When Credit Goes Private: with Sascha Steffen and Daniel Streitz

   Abstract: Private credit has moved a large part of corporate lending away from the traded loan market. We ask what becomes of the information that the traded loan price carried. Business development companies report a value for every loan they hold, and we match these values to daily dealer quotes on traded loans. In early 2024, 87.7% of these lenders’ direct-loan borrowers had no quoted loan. The value reported for such a loan moves 0.36 times as much as a dealer quote when the loan market moves, does not catch up within a year, and gives little warning before the borrower gets into trouble, while the lost quote did. Yet the lenders’ own spreads sort borrower risk as well without a quote as with one. The information is not destroyed; it stays with the lender. The cost falls on the investors who buy and sell fund shares at the reported values.

Discussions

1. Forecast Dispersion and the Price Impact of Macroeconomic News by Samia Badidi — 2026 Melbourne Asset Pricing Meeting. [Slides]

Other Writing

1. What does the Mineral Resources crisis tell us about the state of corporate governance in Australia? [The Conversation]
2. Claude Code for Academics — see the Claude Code page for talks, slides, and open-source repos.
3. Non-finance writing — After hours, I write about the night sky. deepskynotes.com