I am a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Finance at the Department of Finance, University of Technology Sydney (UTS). I completed my PhD at the Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School (CBS) in 2024.

My primary research area is empirical financial intermediation, monetary policy, and macrofinance, with a particular focus on the syndicated corporate loan market.

Published Research

1. Corporate Loan Spreads and Economic Activity: with Anthony Saunders, Sascha Steffen, Daniel Streitz, Review of Financial Studies, [Published version] [SSRN]

   Abstract: We investigate the predictive power of loan spreads for forecasting business cycles, specifically focusing on more constrained, intermediary-reliant firms. We introduce a novel loan-market-based credit spread constructed using secondary corporate loanmarket prices over the 1999 to 2023 period. Loan spreads significantly enhance the prediction of macroeconomic outcomes, outperforming other credit-spread indicators. The paper also explores the underlying mechanisms, differentiating between borrower fundamentals and financial frictions, with evidence suggesting that supply-side frictions are a decisive factor in loan spreads’ forecasting ability.

Working Papers

1. Disagreement in Perceptions of Monetary Policy

   Abstract: Professional forecasts of U.S. monetary policy display persistent and large cross-sectional dispersion. What drives this disagreement? I distinguish between two sources: (i) heterogeneity in macroeconomic outlooks and (ii) heterogeneity in perceived monetary policy rules. Using monthly Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) panels, I estimate forecaster- and time-specific perceived policy rules. I construct a new disagreement measure that isolates cross-sectional dispersion in perceived policy coefficients. I find disagreement is time-varying and systematic: it rises during shifts in policy frameworks. Using a counterfactual that holds macro outlooks fixed across forecasters, I show that a sizable fraction of funds rate forecast dispersion reflects disagreement about the policy rule, not just about the economy. Finally, I document that higher policy-rule disagreement amplifies asset-price sensitivity to FOMC announcements.

2. Do Hedging Flows Bias Event Studies?: with Julian Terstegge and Paul Whelan

   Abstract: Asset returns around scheduled economic events, such as FOMC announcements, are commonly attributed to information revelation or risk premia. We show that part of these returns reflects predictable hedging flows by derivative dealers. Using CBOE trade data for S&P 500 options, we construct dealer vanna, the sensitivity of dealers’ aggregate option-inventory delta to changes in implied volatility. Dealer vanna is negative on average, implying that dealers must buy stocks into FOMC announcements in order to remain (delta) hedged. Exploiting time-series variation, we show that a one-standard-deviation decrease in prior-day dealer vanna predicts a 25 basis-point higher FOMC announcement-day return. Consistent with our proposed channel from expected volatility changes to derivative dealer hedging flows, we find that dealer vanna predicts signed E-mini futures volume on FOMC days. Our findings show that even narrow event windows contain systematic price pressure from intermediary rebalancing, which can distort the interpretation of event study research

3. The (social) cost of strategic default: with Sascha Steffen and Daniel Streitz

Other Writing

1. What does the Mineral Resources crisis tell us about the state of corporate governance in Australia? [The Conversation]
2. Claude Code for Academics — see the Claude Code page for talks, slides, and open-source repos.